The government has confirmed that the Next Social Security Increase will be calculated using inflation data from September. On October 15, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will release the official cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026.
This annual adjustment is critical for retirees, as it directly affects how much their monthly benefit checks will rise. Early projections suggest the increase could be around 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% adjustment applied in 2025. But the question remains: will this increase be enough to protect retirees’ buying power in the face of rising costs and tariffs?
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Next Social Security Increase: What Retirees Must Know
| Data Source | September CPI-W from Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| COLA (2025) | 2.5% |
| COLA 2026 (Estimate) | 2.7% |
| Concern | COLA not keeping up with seniors’ actual costs |
How the Next Social Security Increase Is Calculated
The annual COLA adjustment is based on inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, better known as the CPI-W. The government compares the third quarter of the current year with the third quarter of the previous year. If prices rise, benefits rise by the same percentage. If prices stay flat, the COLA could even be 0.0%.
This formula means checks can increase but will never be cut due to inflation. For 2026, projections place the Next Social Security Increase near 2.7%, but the final number depends on September data.
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Why Retirees Question the CPI-W
Senior advocates argue that the CPI-W does not reflect real retirement expenses. CPI-W is built around the spending habits of working households, not older adults. That means items like transportation and work-related costs carry heavier weight, while healthcare, prescription drugs, and housing critical to retirees — are underrepresented.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has urged lawmakers to switch to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which better reflects the spending priorities of seniors. A recent TSCL survey showed that 94% of participants felt the 2025 COLA of 2.5% was too low, and their benefits grew more slowly than inflation.
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According to Shannon Benton, Executive Director of TSCL, older Americans have repeatedly said their benefit checks fail to match real inflation. She pointed out that if the majority of seniors believe prices climbed faster than official government reports showed in 2024, their experiences should be taken seriously, maybe we should stop questioning their experiences and start questioning why the COLA is failing to measure them,” Benton said.
This shows a growing concern that the Next Social Security Increase may again fall short in protecting the purchasing power of retirees.
Tariffs Could Cancel Out Gains
Independent analyst Mary Johnson and TSCL warn that tariffs could push prices higher than the COLA can cover. Johnson explained that food prices are especially vulnerable, with additional pressure from weather conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and farm labor shortages.
She also flagged staff changes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns about the accuracy of consumer data. The uncertainty leaves retirees questioning whether the upcoming 2.7% estimate will truly make a difference.
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Concerns Shared by Retirees
Surveys by the Nationwide Retirement Institute show deep concern:
- Half of retirees fear tariffs will hurt their retirement income or savings.
- More than six in ten believe rising tariffs will drive inflation above what the COLA can offset.
Even a modest increase in checks may not be enough if essential items like groceries and healthcare continue to climb faster than the official inflation rate.
What the Next Social Security Increase Means for Retirees
If the 2.7% projection holds, retirees will see slightly larger checks in January 2026. But many will still face challenges:
- Higher food costs could quickly eat away at the increase.
- Healthcare and prescription prices often rise faster than CPI-W reflects.
- Housing expenses remain a heavy burden for many older Americans.
While the Next Social Security Increase offers some relief, it may not fully cover the gap between benefit growth and real-life expenses.
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FAQs For Next Social Security Increase
It is based on the CPI-W, comparing the third quarter of the current year with the same period in the previous year.
Analysts currently estimate a 2.7% increase, higher than the 2.5% adjustment in 2025.
They argue that CPI-W does not capture senior expenses like healthcare and housing, making the increase feel smaller than it should.
Tariffs may raise prices on food and goods, erasing much of the benefit from the COLA.
The SSA will release the official figure on October 15, 2025, after September data is finalized.
The Next Social Security Increase is expected to land around 2.7%, giving retirees a modest raise in 2026. Yet concerns about tariffs, healthcare costs, and the accuracy of CPI-W cast doubt on whether the adjustment will go far enough.
For seniors living on fixed incomes, even a small gap between COLA and actual inflation can mean tough choices. The upcoming announcement in October will reveal the official number, but its real value depends on how much of that raise survives the rising cost of living.